Drug prescribing patterns in the General Medical Services Scheme in Ireland and projected costs to 2026

The primary objective is to investigate the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing and projecting this expenditure to 2026. This study is located in the area of pharmacoeconomic cost containment and projections literature. The thesis has five main aims: 1. To determine the main factors contributing to GMS expenditure on pharmaceutical prescribing. 2. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2006 Central Statistics Office (CSO) Census data and 2007 Health Service Executive{Primary Care Reimbursement Service (HSE{PCRS) sample data. 3. To develop a model to project GMS prescribing expenditure in five year intervals to 2026, using 2012 HSE{PCRS population data, incorporating cost containment measures, and 2011 CSO Census data. 4. To investigate the impact of demographic factors and the pharmacology of drugs (Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC)) on GMS expenditure. 5. To explore the consequences of GMS policy changes on prescribing expenditure and behaviour between 2008 and 2014. The thesis is centered around three published articles and is located between the end of a booming Irish economy in 2007, a recession from 2008{2013, to the beginning of a recovery in 2014. The literature identified a number of factors influencing pharmaceutical expenditure, including population growth, population aging, changes in drug utilisation and drug therapies, age, gender and location. The literature identified the methods previously used in predictive modelling and consequently, the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) model was used to simulate projected expenditures to 2026. Also, the literature guided the use of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression in determining demographic and pharmacology factors influencing prescribing expenditure. The study commences against a backdrop of growing GMS prescribing costs, which has risen from e250 million in 1998 to over e1 billion by 2007. Using a sample 2007 HSE{PCRS prescribing data (n=192,000) and CSO population data from 2008, (Conway et al., 2014) estimated GMS prescribing expenditure could rise to e2 billion by2026. The cogency of these findings was impacted by the global economic crisis of 2008, which resulted in a sharp contraction in the Irish economy, mounting fiscal deficits resulting in Ireland's entry to a bailout programme. The sustainability of funding community drug schemes, such as the GMS, came under the spotlight of the EU, IMF, ECB (Trioka), who set stringent targets for reducing drug costs, as conditions of the bailout programme. Cost containment measures included: the introduction of income eligibility limits for GP visit cards and medical cards for those aged 70 and over, introduction of co{payments for prescription items, reductions in wholesale mark{up and pharmacy dispensing fees. Projections for GMS expenditure were reevaluated using 2012 HSE{PCRS prescribing population data and CSO population data based on Census 2011. Taking into account both cost containment measures and revised population predictions, GMS expenditure is estimated to increase by 64%, from e1.1 billion in 2016 to e1.8 billion by 2026, (ConwayLenihan and Woods, 2015). In the final paper, a cross{sectional study was carried out on HSE{PCRS population prescribing database (n=1.63 million claimants) to investigate the impact of demographic factors, and the pharmacology of the drugs, on GMS prescribing expenditure. Those aged over 75 (ẞ = 1:195) and cardiovascular prescribing (ẞ = 1:193) were the greatest contributors to annual GMS prescribing costs. Respiratory drugs (Montelukast) recorded the highest proportion and expenditure for GMS claimants under the age of 15. Drugs prescribed for the nervous system (Escitalopram, Olanzapine and Pregabalin) were highest for those between 16 and 64 years with cardiovascular drugs (Statins) were highest for those aged over 65. Females are more expensive than males and are prescribed more items across the four ATC groups, except among children under 11, (ConwayLenihan et al., 2016). This research indicates that growth in the proportion of the elderly claimants and associated levels of cardiovascular prescribing, particularly for statins, will present difficulties for Ireland in terms of cost containment. Whilst policies aimed at cost containment (co{payment charges, generic substitution, reference pricing, adjustments to GMS eligibility) can be used to curtail expenditure, health promotional programs and educational interventions should be given equal emphasis. Also policies intended to affect physicians prescribing behaviour include guidelines, information (about price and less expensive alternatives) and feedback, and the use of budgetary restrictions could yield savings.

Trends in blindness due to diabetic retinopathy among adults aged 18-69 years over a decade in Ireland

Aims: To describe trends in the incidence of visual impairment and blindness due to diabetic retinopathy among adults aged 18–69 years in Ireland between 2004 and 2013. Methods: Data on visual impairment due to diabetic retinopathy in adults aged 18–69 years or over who are registered with the National Council for the Blind of Ireland, (2004–2013) were analysed. Annual incidence rates were calculated for the adult population and the population with diagnosed diabetes. Poisson regression was used to test for changes in rates over time. The relative, attributable and population risk of blindness and visual impairment due to diabetic retinopathy were calculated for 2013. Results: Over the decade, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes increased from 2.1% to 3.6%. Among people with diagnosed diabetes, the incidence of visual impairment due to diabetic retinopathy increased from 6.4 (95% CI 2.4–13.9) per 100,000 in 2004 to 11.7 (95% CI 5.9–21.0) per 100,000 in 2013. The incidence of blindness due to diabetic retinopathy varied from 31.9 per 100,000 (95% CI 21.6–45.7) in 2004 to 14.9 per 100,000 (95% CI 8.2–25.1) in 2013. Conclusions: Our findings indicate the need for increased attention to preventive measures for microvascular complications among adults with diabetes in Ireland. Retinopathy screening has been standardised in Ireland, these findings provide useful baseline statistics to monitor the impact of this population-based screening programme.

Step-count accuracy of three motion sensors for older and frail medical inpatients

Objectives: To measure the step-count accuracy of an ankle-worn accelerometer, a thigh-worn accelerometer and one pedometer in older and frail inpatients. Design: Cross-sectional design study. Setting: Research room within a hospital. Participants: Convenience sample of inpatients aged ≥65 years, able to walk 20 metres unassisted, with or without a walking-aid. Intervention: Patients completed a 40-minute programme of predetermined tasks while wearing the three motion sensors simultaneously. Video-recording of the procedure provided the criterion measurement of step-count. Main Outcome Measures: Mean percentage (%) errors were calculated for all tasks, slow versus fast walkers, independent versus walking-aid-users, and over shorter versus longer distances. The Intra-class Correlation was calculated and accuracy was visually displayed by Bland-Altman plots. Results: Thirty-two patients (78.1 ±7.8 years) completed the study. Fifteen were female and 17 used walking-aids. Their median speed was 0.46 m/sec (interquartile range, IQR 0.36-0.66). The ankle-worn accelerometer overestimated steps (median 1% error, IQR -3 to 13). The other motion sensors underestimated steps (40% error (IQR -51 to -35) and 38% (IQR -93 to -27), respectively). The ankle-worn accelerometer proved more accurate over longer distances (3% error, IQR 0 to 9), than shorter distances (10%, IQR -23 to 9). Conclusions: The ankle-worn accelerometer gave the most accurate step-count measurement and was most accurate over longer distances. Neither of the other motion sensors had acceptable margins of error.

Epidemiology of diabetes and complications among adults in the Republic of Ireland 1998-2015: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Accurate estimates of the burden of diabetes are essential for future planning and evaluation of services. In Ireland, there is no diabetes register and prevalence estimates vary. The aim of this review was to systematically identify and review studies reporting the prevalence of diabetes and complications among adults in Ireland between 1998 and 2015 and to examine trends in prevalence over time. Methods: A systematic literature search was carried out using PubMed and Embase. Diabetes prevalence estimates were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. Poisson regression was carried out using data from four nationally representative studies to calculate prevalence rates of doctor diagnosed diabetes between 1998 and 2015 and was also used to assess whether the rate of doctor diagnosed diabetes changed over time. Results: Fifteen studies (eight diabetes prevalence and seven complication prevalence) were eligible for inclusion. In adults aged 18 years and over, the national prevalence of doctor diagnosed diabetes significantly increased from 2.2 % in 1998 to 5.2 % in 2015 (p trend ≤ 0.001). The prevalence of diabetes complications ranged widely depending on study population and methodology used (6.5–25.2 % retinopathy; 3.2–32.0 % neuropathy; 2.5-5.2 % nephropathy). Conclusions: Between 1998 and 2015, there was a significant increase in the prevalence of doctor diagnosed diabetes among adults in Ireland. Trends in microvascular and macrovascular complications prevalence could not be examined due to heterogeneity between studies and the limited availability of data. Reliable baseline data are needed to monitor improvements in care over time at a national level. A comprehensive national diabetes register is urgently needed in Ireland.

Risk factors for macro- and microvascular complications among older adults with diagnosed type 2 diabetes: findings from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing

Objective. To explore risk factors for macro- and microvascular complications in a nationally representative sample of adults aged 50 years and over with type 2 diabetes in Ireland. Methods. Data from the first wave of The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) (2009–2011) was used in cross-sectional analysis. The presence of doctor diagnosis of diabetes, risk factors, and macro and microvascular complications were determined by self-report. Gender-specific differences in risk factor prevalence were assessed with the chi-squared test. Binomial regression analysis was conducted to explore independent associations between established risk factors and diabetes-related complications. Results. Among 8175 respondents, 655 were classified as having type 2 diabetes. Older age, being male, a history of smoking, a lower level of physical activity, and a diagnosis of high cholesterol were independent predictors of macrovascular complications. Diabetes diagnosis of 10 or more years, a history of smoking, and a diagnosis of hypertension were associated with an increased risk of microvascular complications. Older age, third-level education, and a high level of physical activity were protective factors (